Next week's macro outlook: US CPI alongside the decisions of two major central banks, SpaceX IPO is coming in strong

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll data on Friday, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year surged, causing spot gold to plummet sharply, nearly erasing all gains for the year, marking a fourth consecutive week of declines. Silver's overall trend mirrored that of gold but with slightly stronger volatility, closing down 9.85% for the week. The U.S. dollar index, buoyed by the unexpected non-farm data, rose significantly to just above the 100 mark. Following the non-farm data on Friday, U.S. tech stocks suffered heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.35%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.65%, marking the largest single-day drop since October 2025; the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, the largest single-day decline since April 2025.

Goldman Sachs believes that the current market sentiment is clearly more greedy than fearful. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market is highly sensitive to any negative news involving Iran. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):

• Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
• Tuesday 14:00, Germany April seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month, April seasonally adjusted trade balance;
• Tuesday 18:00, U.S. May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index;
• Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 23;
• Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May unadjusted CPI, May seasonally adjusted CPI/core CPI month-on-month;
• Wednesday 21:45, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;
• Thursday 20:15, European Central Bank announces interest rate decision;
• Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI year-on-year/month-on-month;
• Friday 14:00, Germany May CPI month-on-month final value;
• Friday 14:45, France May CPI month-on-month final value;
• Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary value, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.

In the coming week, the market will face a series of important events, but the most anticipated remains the potential initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. According to current plans, this transaction may launch on Friday, and if it proceeds, it is expected to have a significant impact on overall market sentiment, although the specific direction is still difficult to determine.

In addition to SpaceX, the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, earnings reports, and TSMC's May sales data may also become important factors influencing market volatility. Next week, U.S. stocks will enter a relatively calm phase of earnings season; although the overall number of reports is not large, heavyweight tech companies Oracle and Adobe will take the stage one after another, becoming the focus of market attention.